Bayesian Epistemology 2016

Bayes theorem: The cornerstone of Bayesian confirmation theory. 

All readings except Bradley (2015) can be downloaded by clicking on their publishing year. Course description can be downloaded by clicking here. You'll find information about your final essay here.

Class 1: Degrees of belief. 

  • Bradley (2015), ch.1; Strevens (2012), ch. 2. 
  • Ramsey, (1926), only section 3 (i.e., the part titled “Degrees of belief”), and don’t worry about the mathematical details.

Class 2: Belief and acceptance. 

  • Bradley (2015), ch. 2; 
  • Foley (2009).

Extra readings for class 1 and 2: Jeffrey (1968), Maher (1992); Eriksson and Hájek (2007), Buchak (2014).

Class 3: Norms of Probabilism. 

  • Bradley (2015), ch. 3; Strevens (2012), ch. 3.

Class 4: The Dutch Book argument for Probabilism.

  • Hajek (2008a), sections 1-4 (pp. 1-23). 

Extra readings for classes 3 and 4: Lewis (1980); Bradley (2015), ch. 9; Stefansson (forthcoming); Easwaran (2011a); Eriksson and Hájek (2007); Hájek (2008a); Hajek (2008b); Steele and Stefansson (2015), section 3.

Extra readings on "sharp" subjective probabilities: Elga (2010); Bradley and Steele (2014); Bradley (2014).

Class 5: Bayesian conditionalization.

  •  Bradley (2015) ch. 4 & 10.1; Strevens (2012), ch. 4.

Class 6: Challenge for conditionalization: Sleeping Beauty.

  • Bradley (2015), pp. 152-155; Elga (2000); Lewis (2001).

Extra readings for classes 5 and 6: Hájek (2008a), section 5; Hajek (2003); Easwaran (2011a); Briggs (2009); Mahtani (2015); Arntzenius (2003).

Class 7: Bayesian machinery (Confirmation Theory).

  • Strevens (2012), ch. 5-6.2.

Class 8: Problem of induction and the paradox of the ravens.

  • Strevens (2012), ch. 7-8.1; Bradley (2015), chs. 6 & 8.

Extra readings for classes 7 and 8: Howson and Urbach (1993), chs. 1 and 4a-4d; Easwaran (2011b); Bradley (2015), ch. 7. 

Class 9: Subjectivity and constraining the priors

  • Strevens (2012),  ch. 9,

Extra readings for class 9: Earman (1992), ch. 6; Easwaran  (2011b).